基于系统动力学方法的新型城镇化进程中农村土地流转的社会风险识别

Social Risk Identification of Rural Land Circulation in the Process of New Urbanization——Based on System Dynamics

从系统的角度来看,处于农村土地流转这个复杂系统中的各种风险因素相互联系、相互作用并处在动态变化中。基于系统论的思想,对新型城镇化进程中农村土地流转的社会风险因素进行分析;针对农村土地流转系统的复杂结构和动态行为特性,以系统动力学理论为基础建立了农村土地流转中社会风险识别反馈模型,并运用原因树识别出引起各目标风险的关键风险因素。通过分析,可以帮助准确地辨识土地流转中关键的社会风险因素,以期为土地流转过程中社会风险管理质量的提高与风险管理理论的丰富提供支持。

From the systematic perspective, various risk factors in dynamic status are interrelated and interacting in rural land circulation. This research analyzed comprehensive social risk factors based on system theory in rural land circulation. According to the complex structure and characteristics of dynamic behavior of rural land circulation system, social risk identification feedback model was built based on system dynamics, and main risk factors which lead to target risk were identified by Causes tree. It contributes to identifying the key factors accurately in the hope of enhancing the quality and enriching theories of social risk management in rural land circulation.