对外开放与碳排放——基于省际面板的空间计量分析

Research on the Relationship between Opening-up and Carbon Emissions

通过收集全国28个省市1997—2011年的人均FDI和人均进出口贸易等指标的面板数据,构造基于对外开放经济距离的空间权重矩阵,进而对碳排放进行空间自相关检验。研究表明,对外开放程度接近的区域存在碳排放的集聚效应。另外,建立空间杜宾模型对对外开放和碳排放的关系进行实证检验。检验表明,贸易对碳排放的影响处在环境库兹涅茨倒U型曲线右端;FDI对碳排放的影响不存在"污染天堂";FDI和贸易对碳排放的影响存在辐射效应,而碳排放自身存在空间示范效应。

Through the collection of panel data of the per capita FDI, per capita import and export trade of the 28 provinees from 1997 to 2011, we constructed the spatial weight matrix based on the economic distance which describes the similarity of the opening-up of different areas,And then the spatial autocorrelation test of carbon emissions is carried out.The study shows that the agglomeration effect of carbon emissions oecurs in the region of close extent of opening up.In addition, we established the Spatial Dubin Model（SDM ）to make an empirical test on the relationship between opening up degree and carbon emissions.The test showed that the effect of trade on carbon emissions is in the right side of the Environmental Kuznets inverted U-shaped curve ; the effect of FDI impact on carbon emissions shows there is not ＂pollution heaven＂ ; the effect of FDI and trade impact on carbon emission shows＇there is radiation effects.Carbon emissions has demonstration effect of space itself.