中国金融发展对贫困减少长短期动态影响

The Short-term and Long-term Dynamic Effects of Poverty Reduction Originating From the Financial Development

贫困问题是制约经济发展和影响社会稳定的重大障碍性因素之一。利用经济计量方法,对中国1985年到2013年金融发展、经济发展对城镇贫困减少长、短期影响和Granger因果关系进行实证研究。实证结果表明:1985年至2013年,金融发展、经济发展、贫困减少三者之间存在长期均衡的关系。从长短期来看,中国经济发展、金融发展能够有效促进贫困的减少。因此政府要从宏观经济发展、金融发展的角度制定脱贫工作新政策。加快经济发展,进一步深化中国金融发展与改革对于解决中国贫困问题具有重要指导意义和实践意义。

Poverty is a major obstacle of controlling economic development and affecting social stability. This paper uses econometric methods to study the long and short- term effects of the reduction of urban poverty and Granger causal relationship coming from the finance development of China from 1985 to 2013. The results show as follows： Between 1985 and 2013,there exists long- term equilibrium relationship among financial development,economic development and poverty reduction. From the short and long term,the economic and financial development can promote the reduction of poverty effectively. Therefore,government＇s anti- poverty work should make new policy from the angle of macroeconomic and financial development. It is important to solve the problem of China＇s poverty by speeding up the economic development,deeping financial development and reform.