基于IGOWA算子的我国个人所得税收入的组合预测

The Combination Forecasting for Chinese Personal Income Tax Revenue Based on the IGOWA Operators

以2002~2013年个人所得税收入为研究对象,运用灰色预测、时间序列预测和回归预测三种单项预测方法预测在不同时点上的个人所得税收入,并利用IGOWA算子,选取值为1时的特殊情况,建立以误差平方和最小为准则的IOWA算子组合预测模型。在计算出模型的预测值及预测精度后对各模型进行有效性检验,结果表明组合预测模型能显著提高预测精度,故用此组合预测模型预测了2014~2016年我国个人所得税收入,使得预测结果更加合理有效。

Based on the object of research from 2002 to 2013 of personal income tax revenue,establishing gray forecasting model,time series model and regression forecasting model. And using IGOWA operator,selecting the special case that λ is equal to 1,and we establish combination forecasting model on the basis of IOWA operator by the minimum sum of error square. After calculating the prediction value of the model and the prediction accuracy,we evaluate the effectiveness of models,and then we can know that the forecasting model can improve the prediction accuracy effectively. Then forecasting the income of individual income tax in China from 2014 to 2016,the results shows that the combined forecasting results are more reasonable and effective.