基于脱钩理论的湖南省节能减排效果分析

Analysis on the Effects of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction in Hunan Province Based on Decoupling Theory

节能减排效果是各级政府部门对区域经济社会发展质量效益的关键性考核指标,也与绿色化发展对降低碳排放要求的理念相吻合。作者根据湖南省"十一五"以来(2006—2015年)的森林覆盖率数据来衡量区域绿色化发展水平,并结合其几种主要能源消耗数据来衡量碳排放情况,运用脱钩理论分析绿色化发展水平与碳排放动态脱钩变化,以检验湖南省节能减排效果。分析表明,湖南省绿色化发展水平与碳排放之间存在由弱脱钩到强脱钩的转变,说明湖南省绿色化发展水平取得一定成效。下一阶段应继续调整产业结构,稳定森林覆盖率水平,完善节能减排制度。

The effects of energy saving and emission reduction is the key indicator of every level of government department’s assessment of regional economic and social development quality and efficiency. It also aligns with the concept of reducing carbon emissions required by green development. Based on the forest coverage rate data since Hunan Province’s＂Eleventh Five Year＂（ 2006- 2015）,the author measured the level of regional green development. Combined with the several major energy consumption data,the author also measured carbon emissions and used decoupling theory to analyze green development levels and the dynamic decoupling changes of carbon emission in order to test the effects of energy- saving and emission reduction in Hunan Province. Analysis showed that green development level and carbon emission in Hunan province showed change from weak decoupling to strong decoupling,which meant that the green development level of Hunan province has achieved some success. The next stage should involve adjusting the industrial structure,stabilizing the level of forest coverage,improving the energy conoservation and emission reduction system and more.