福建省粮食安全及其评价研究

Quantitative Evaluation of Food Security in Fujian Province

福建人多地少耕地面积更少,是我国第三大粮食主销区,在快速城镇化背景下粮食生产与消费需求矛盾加剧。采用粮食安全系数评价法,构建了包括粮食自给率、人均粮食占有量、粮食单产水平、人均耕地、粮食生产波动系数在内的区域粮食安全综合评价指标体系,对福建省9个设区市2006年和2012年粮食安全状况进行定量评价。结果表明:(1)整体上福建省粮食安全状况为临界安全级,粮食安全基本有保障,但粮食自给率下行压力增大;(2)福建省各区域粮食安全状况差异显著,存在粮食生产与粮食消费空间分布上的错位性,在趋势上东南沿海地区粮食安全形势恶化明显而闽西北地区形势转好;(3)依据粮食安全综合评价分值(Q值)可将福建省粮食安全等级划分为3类,即三明、南平、龙岩属于粮食安全区,漳州、宁德属于粮食临界安全区,福州、厦门、莆田、漳州为粮食不安全区。并针对不同类型区域粮食生产及消费特点提出保障粮食安全的政策建议。

With the less land areas and large populations, Fujian province has become the third largest food demand area in china. Under the background of rapid urbanization, the contradiction between grain production and demand of food consumption is becoming more and more intensified. In this paper, we built an integrated index of regional food security, including the food self-sufficiency rate, per capita share of grain, grain production levels, per capita arable land, and fluctuation coefficient in grain production. Then we evaluated the food security of all the cities in Fujian province in both 2006 and 2012 using the coefficient of food security method. The results showed that： （1） the food security situation in Fujian Province was in criticality safety level and the overall food security could be guaranteed. But the downward pressure of food self-sufficiency rate was increasing; （2） there were obvious differences among food security of various regions, severe deterioration could be proved in the coastal areas according to the changing trends; （3） based on the food security evaluation scores （Q value） , nine cities in Fujian was divided into three types： regions of food security, including Sanming, Nanping and Longyan; regions of critical food safety, including Zhangzhou and Ningde; regions of food insecurity, including the other cities. Finally, according to different types of food security and consumption characteristics in nine cities, we proposed some policy suggestions to ensure regional food security of Fujian province.