浅谈我国金融状况指数构建中的变量选取问题

A view to Select the Suitable Variables in the Construction of Financial Conditions Index of China

随着金融市场和实体经济之间的联系越来越紧密,金融市场的运行状况已经逐步影响到实体经济的运行,金融市场指标通过货币政策传导等一系列机制,对实体经济的运行趋势具有一定的预测能力。因此,如何正确地选取金融指标,使其更好地预测实体经济就显得至关重要。正确选取的金融变量能够准确地反映出我国实体经济的运行情况,能够构建出符合我国国情的、可以准确预示我国实体经济发展趋势的金融状况指数。基于此,分析评述国际上流行的几种金融指标变量,并与我国的实际情况进行融合成为了一个重要的课题。

With the relationship between the financial conditions and the real economy becomes more and more closely,the financial conditions have a ability to effect the real economy.Based on this phenomenon,Financial Conditions Index(FCI),which is constructed by a series of financial variables,is possible to predict the situation of the real economy.Therefore,how to select the suitable variables,which based on Chinese conditions,in order to construct the most predictive FCI is a meaningful question.