国内大型电商自建物流时机选择研究

A Research of Timing Choice of Adopting Self-running Logistics by Domestic Large E-commerce Companies

与以往制造企业由自建物流转向外包的研究不同,本文以国内大型电商由外包转向自建物流模式为出发点,构建了部分自建物流最佳时机的实物期权模型,得出了最佳投资时机的解析解,并研究了关键参数与最佳投资临界值的变化关系,最后通过与净现值法下的结果进行比较证明了模型的合理性。研究表明:外包模式下市场不确定性与最佳投资时机呈正相关;在自建模式下,随着自建和外包利润大小关系的变化,自建比例和最佳投资时机的关系不同,而非以往研究中的单一负相关关系。

On the basis of changes of logistics mode of domestic large E-commerce companies from outsourcing to self-running,which is different from the existing study of changes of logistics mode of manufacturing companies from self-running to outsourcing,this paper builds up a real option model about when is the optimal time to introduce partial self-running logistics mode,a solution is derived from the model. And this passage compares ROT model with NPV model,which confirms the rationality of ROT. The above research shows： in outsourcing mode,the uncertainties of logistics demand is positively related to the optimal investment timing; in self-running mode,with changes of relationship between self-running and outsourcing profits,the relationship between the self construction proportion and the optimal investment timing varies in different situations,which is different from the purely negative relationship in previous researches.