土地财政扩张对能源消费的影响机制及其实证检验

Effect Mechanism of Land Revenue Expansion on Energy Consumption and Its Empirical Test

基于1997—2012年中国30个省(自治区、直辖市)的数据,采用System GMM计量模型,剖析了地方政府的土地财政扩张对能源消费的影响机制和路径。结果显示:土地财政扩张可以有效降低能源消费强度,当达到某一临界值后,土地财政对能源消费强度的影响由负转正,影响曲线呈正U型;土地财政对能源消费总量的影响正好相反。进一步研究得出:土地财政对能源消费强度的影响路径是土地财政扩张可以同时促进地区生产总值和能源消费总量的增加,其中对前者的影响程度更大。指出:硬化能源消费强度和能源消费总量"双控"考核可以减少能源浪费;要消除这种负面效应,还须健全预算约束和官员绩效考核体系,扭转地方政府的土地财政内在激励和偏好,改变当前地方政府的土地开发行为模式。

Based on the data of 30 provinces（autonomous regions and municipalities） in China from 1997 to 2012, this paper adopts sys-GMM e- conometric model to study the influence mechanism and path of land revenue of local government on energy consumption. The results show as follows：the expansion of land revenue effectively reduces the intensity of energy consumption;but after land revenue reaching a critical point, the influence of land revenue on energy consumption intensity shifts from negatively to positively,that is,the relationship between them takes on U- shape：the influence of land revenue of local government on energy consumption quantity is just the opposite. On this basis,it concludes that the influence direction of land revenue on GDP and energy consumption quantity is same,and the influence on the latter is less than that on the for- mer. Finally,in the light that land revenue leads to the distortion of resource allocation, budget constraint and official performance evaluation system must be improved to eliminate the negative effect,and the incentive and preference to land revenue of local government should he correc- ted to change local government＇s current behavioral pattern of land development.