中国农村劳动力的迁移决策及其对工资的影响——基于RUMiC农村住户追踪调查数据的实证分析

Migration Decision of Chinese Rural Labor Force and Its Impact on Wages——An Empirical Study Based on RUMi CPanel Data of Rural Households

基于2008年和2009年中国城乡劳动力流动调查(RUMi C)的农村住户追踪调查数据,从个体特征、家庭特征、社会网络和社区地域信息四层面探讨农村劳动力的迁移决策,研究发现,年龄、性别和子女数量等因素显著影响迁移决策。其中,年龄对迁移决策的影响呈倒U型,男性和子女数量少的个体倾向于外出。在此基础上,尝试探讨"留乡-外出-返乡"动态的迁移决策差异。值得注意的是,性别、培训情况和父母的健康对于农民的"返乡"决策具有显著影响。在控制个体特征、就业特征等因素的基础上,利用Heckman两步法分别克服"迁移决策偏差"和"就业机会偏差"等样本选择性偏差后,进一步研究发现农村劳动力的迁移决策对工资水平具有显著促进作用。

Based on RUMiC panel data of rural households, migration decisions of Chinese rural labor force were studied from four perspectives, including individual characteristics, household characteristics, social network and local information. The paper found that several factors, including age, gender and number of children at home significantly affected rural labor force＇s decision to move out of their own counties. The impact of age on migration decision was inverted U curve, and male individual with less number of children tend to migrate. On this basis, the ＂stay-migrate-return＂ dynamic migration decisions were also elementarily discussed. It was worth noting that gender, training condition and parents＇ health condition had significant impact on ＂return＂ decision. Furthermore, Heekman two-step method was used to overcome sample selection bias when exploring the effect of migration decision on wages. After controlling individual and employment characteristics, it was concluded that migration decision significantly increased rural labor force＇s wages.