农民种粮是否有利可图?——基于粮食种植成本收益分析

Can Farmers Benefit from Grain-Growing——Based on Cost-Benefit Analysis

在经济新常态背景下，农业生产面临的挑战日益增多，农民种粮行为的改变引起政策制定部门重视，研究农民种粮是否有利可图，可更好地调整政策，促进生产。根据2002～2014年的统计数据，分析种粮成本收益情况，运用成本利润率指标比较粮食生产与非粮食作物、养殖业和工业行业的经济效益，对可能存在的家庭用工成本低估现象，采用“市场雇工价”代替“家庭用工折价”调整成本利润率，比较种粮与务工收益。得出结论为，粮食生产在经济效益上并不具有优势，农民在就业选择和作物选择上均不倾向于粮食生产。

New challenges increased in agricultural production under normal economic background, as a result, policy makers pay more attention to the changing behavior of grain-growing farmers. Study on whether farmers can benefit from growing would help policies adjustment and production promotion. Cost-revenue analysis was carried out according to statistical data from 2002 to 2014, and cost-profit ratios were compared between food production and non-food crops, aquaculture industry and industrial sectors. As for the possible family labor cost underestimate, market employment price was adjusted using family labor price. In addition, grain-growing earnings was compared with the wage earnings. It was concluded that food production had no comparative benefit, as a result farmers did not tend to choose grain production both in employment and crops options, and farmland conversion became an inevitable trend and phenomenon dur- ing the process of economic development.