上海自贸区的经济溢出效应——基于系统动力学的方法

A Study on SFTZ Spillover Effect Based on System Dynamics

上海自贸区带动了上海和周边区域的发展。本文试图通过建模和仿真实验的方法,检验上海自贸区对自贸区周边产业片区以及上海经济腹地的经济、政策和人才的溢出效应。本文基于系统动力学方法建立上海自贸区效应溢出系统关系模型,使用上海自贸区运营数据,利用VENSIM平台进行仿真和预测。研究结果表明,上海自贸区发展能够有效促进上海及周边地区的经济、人才和政策的发展,但目前的溢出效应多集中于短期的资金、人才以及政策溢出。因此,上海自贸区亟需形成良性经济循环体系以及可推广的制度创新方法,以期达到对上海和周边地区的发展发挥可持续的推动和支撑作用。

As the leading of China FTZ, Shanghai FTZ has been operating for more than two years and it does promote the development of Shanghai and surrounding areas. This paper verifies the Shanghai FTZ spillover effects on economy, talents and the aggregation of policy level. We establish the spillover effect model and conduct simulation experiments on VENSIM platform based on the data from Shanghai FTZ. The results indicate that the development of Shanghai FTZ plays positive effects on the economy, talents and policy growth of Shanghai and surrounding areas, although the spillover effects are mostly channeled through short-term funds, talents and policy aspects. This paper implies that it is better for FTZ to format a virtuous circle of economic system and a replicable innovation method aiming to drive and support the development of Shanghai and the surrounding areas.