工业产业结构调整和技术进步的气候效应

Climate Change Effects of Industrial Structure Adjustments and Technical Improvements

基于中国1980—2013年碳排放、经济、能耗、环境等数据,构建气候效应分解模型,将气候效应分解为规模效应、传统意义的结构效应、低碳意义的结构效应、传统意义的技术效应和低碳意义的技术效应。协整分析显示,主要正向气候效应是经济增长带来的规模效应,主要负向气候效应是能耗强度下降和低碳环保技术投资带来的双重技术效应,高排放行业增加和低碳能源占比上升带来的正、负结构效应都较低,其中负向结构效应低于正向结构效应。

Based on China＇ s 1980-2013 data of carbon emissions, economy, energy consumption and environ- ment and so on, the paper establishes a decomposition model of climate change effects which consist of scale effects, structure effects in traditional meaning, structure effects in the meaning of low carbon, technique effects in traditional meaning, and technique effects in the meaning of low carbon. The co-integration test shows that the main positive effects of climate are the results of the scale effects of economic growth, and the main negative effects are the effects produced by energy consumption intensity decrements and low carbon and environment technology investments, and the growth of the ratio of carbon intensive industries leads to low positive effects, while the growth of the ratio of clean energy gains a little lower negative effects.