摘要
文章针对目前许多国家在人口普查质量评估工作中,估计人口普查中多报人口所用估计量存在的缺陷,构造多报比率估计量替代现行的估计量。文章用指标体系梳理与抽样估计相结合的研究方法,首先厘清普查多报估计所需人口普查登记的人口状态指标,并构建这些指标的平衡关系,然后讨论如何依据样本数据建立新的估计量,以及估计其方差。最后,文章利用中国某地区64个社区及行政村"六普"复查和19个样本调查小区的资料,演示人口普查的多报比率估计量及其方差估计量的计算过程,从而有助于对该估计量的理解,以期在中国2020年人口普查的质量评估中推广应用。
Related to the imperfect estimator that many countries have been using in their census quality assessment at present, this paper constructs a new census over-coverage ratio estimator to replace the existing estimator. Using the combination of the index system carding and sampling ratio estimation, this paper tries to clarify the census registration indicators that are used to estimate census over-coverage number, establishes the balance among these indicators, and discusses how to construct this new estimator based on sample data and estimate its variance. Finally, using the sixth census reviewed materials from 64 communities and administrative villages and population data from 19 sample survey areas of a city. The paper shows a comprehensive display of the census over-coverage ratio estimator and its variance estimators calculation process that helps to understand the estimator correctly and its generalisation and application in 2020 census quality assessment.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第1期41-52,126-127,共12页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
基金
国家社科基金项目"人口普查净误差估计中的三系统估计量研究"(编号:15BTJ011)的阶段性成果
