基于Bayesian隧道施工风险模糊综合评估方法

Risk assessment of tunnel construction by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on bayesian networks

提出了基于贝叶斯网络的隧道施工风险模糊综合评估方法,以龙家岩隧道实际收集数据为基础,首先对隧道工程进行总体风险评估,然后进行专项评估,此项中运用了贝叶斯网络的评估方法对事件风险的自然概率进行计算,并结合模糊综合评估方法对隧道工程风险进行评价,得到隧道工程的风险事件的风险等级。研究结果表明,龙家岩隧道洞口开挖的风险等级为2级,钻爆作业的风险等级2级,初期支护的风险等级为5级。这与现场施工的风险水平较为接近,从而可以看出本评估方法的合理性及实际施工过程中的适用性。本方法最终评估结果为隧道施工的风险预测及预防提供了参考依据。

A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on Bayesian networks was proposed. Based on the actual data collected from LONG rock tunnel, the overall risk assessment of the tunnel project was conducted first. Then a special evaluation was conducted, which the Bayeux Adams network evaluation method was utilized to calculate the natural probability of event risk. Finally, the risk level of risk events of the tunnel project was obtained by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results show that the risk rating of the rock tunnel entrance excavation is 2, the risk level of drilling and blasting operations is 2, the risk level of initial support is 5. This site construction is closer to the level of risk, which can be seen in the reasonableness and the actual construetion process of the assessment of the applicability of the method. The final results of the assessment method for the risk prediction and prevention of tunnel construction provides a reference.