复杂堆积层滑坡的稳定性评价方法分析与展望

Analysis and prospects of the stability evaluation methods of the complicated colluvial landslides

滑坡的稳定性分析与评价是滑坡地质灾害防治与减灾防灾领域的基础,而其稳定性评价方法又是完成滑坡的稳定性分析与评价的前提条件.在对滑坡稳定性评价方法的国内外研究现状进行系统分析与总结基础上,针对复杂堆积层滑坡的特点,系统分析了主要传统滑坡稳定性评价方法的特点和存在的不足与局限性,依据传统极限平衡法和位移时序预测法的特点提出和建立了堆积层滑坡位移动力学评价方法,同时总结了位移动力学评价与预测方法的研究进展,对滑坡预测预报方法的研究提出了几点展望.

The stability analysis and evaluation of landslide is the basis of prevention of land- slide and disasters, the stability evaluation method is the premise condition of completing the stability analysis and evaluation of landslide. According to the characteristics of complicated colluvial landslide, this paper analyzes the features and limitations of evaluation methods of traditional landslide based on the research status of evaluation methods of the landslide sta- bility at home and abroad. And on the basis of the characteristics of the traditional ultimate equilibrium evaluation method and displacement time series forecasting method, the paper puts forward and sets up the displacement dynamic method of colluvial landslide. At the same time, it summarizes the research progress of displacement dynamic evaluation and fore cast method, and affords an prospect of the research on the prediction method of landslide.