基于ECM模型和库兹涅茨曲线的区域能源消费峰值研究——以重庆市为例

Research on Regional Energy Consumption Peak Based on ECM Model and Kuznets Curve: Take Chongqing as an Example

以重庆市为例,选取1997—2013年的GDP、人均GDP、城镇化率和工业比重等统计数据,研究影响能源消费和经济发展相关因素的关系,结合协整检验、Granger因果检验、误差修正模型(ECM)和库兹涅茨曲线,运用定量分析方法进行分析,预测能源消费峰值,揭示能源消费与经济发展动态关系。结果表明:能源消费与人均GDP、城镇化率、工业比重分别有着单向、双向、单向的因果关系。根据长期均衡方程和ECM预测出2020、2025、2030年重庆市的能源消费情况,结合GDP和能源消费的库兹涅茨曲线,重庆市能源消费将在2028年达到峰值。研究结果与我国总体能源消费目标吻合,能够为我国城市能源消费规划及政策制定提供参考依据。

Taking Chongqing as an example,we selected GDP,per capita GDP,urbanization rate and the proportion of industrial statistics from 1997 to 2013,and studied the factors affecting energy consumption and economic development,and combined with the co-integration test,Granger causality test,error correction model（ ECM） and Kuznets Curve,and used quantitative analysis method,we analyzed and discussed the relationship between them by predicting the peak of energy consumption,to reveal the dynamic relationship between energy consumption and economic development. The results show that the energy consumption and per capita GDP,urbanization rate,industrial proportion respectively has a one-way,two-way and one-way causal relationship respectively. According to the long-term equilibrium equation and the ECM,we predicted energy consumption situation of Chongqing of 2020,2025,2030 respectively,and combined with the GDP and energy consumption of the Kuznets curve,energy consumption in Chongqing will arise its peak in 2028. The results accord with China’s overall energy consumption targets,conduce to comprehensive deal with the problem of energy demand,the urban energy consumption planning and policy in making provide reference.