利用贝叶斯学习法修正报价的发电权交易研究

Research on Generation Rights Trade by Using Bayes Learning Method to Modify the Offer

在不完全知道发电权交易对方报价的前提下,通过贝叶斯自学习方法估计对方报价来预知对方交易报价底线,并根据Zeuthen策略调整己方的报价,然后考虑双方网损率来对报价进行修正,使之更加符合实际交易情况,最后通过算例仿真对报价结果进行分析,验证了考虑网损率下报价双方交易的有效性。

On the premise of being not fully aware of opposite offer in generation rightstrade, Bayes self learning method is used to estimate opposite offer and foresee the trade baseline, Zeuthen strategy is taken as basis for adjusting own offer. Both network loss rate are considered for modifying the offer so as to make it more corresponding with actual trade situa- tion. Example simulation is conducted to analyze the offer result and verify effectiveness of mutual transaction under the condition of considering network loss rate.