摘要
三门峡水利工程是新中国成立后的一项重大水利工程,工程建设及运行过程中出现了许多重大问题。一些学者将问题出现的重要原因归结为决策失误。本文回顾了工程建设的方案论证及运行的纠错历程,认为,三门峡水利工程的建设及运行过程符合"从问题到问题"的环境适应的循环模式,呈现出明显的异化特征。在详尽分析工程两次异化过程的基础上,得出结论:未来的不确定性是工程建设异化的根本原因,任何决策都有失误的可能。不能因为三门峡工程的建设与运行出现问题而对之上马的必要性及合理性进行全盘否定。任何重大工程均不可能完全避免类似三门峡工程那样的问题,重大工程应慎之又慎。
Sanmenxia Reservoir is an important project after the founding of new China. Some accidents happened in its running and some scholars returned the causes back to the decision-making mistakes. After re-viewing the process of construction and running of Sanmenxia Reservoir, this paper thinks that the process con-forms to the circulate model of adaptation from problems to problems. Based on the analysis of twice alienations of running of the project, a conclusion may be drawn that the uncertainty of future leaded to the running alienation of project. Though accidents happened, there is necessity and rationality of construction of Sanmenxia Reservoir. Because it is impossible to avoid completely decision-making mistakes, we should treat large scale projects with extreme prudence.
基金
中国科学院规划与战略研究项目"中国近现代工程史研究"
关键词
三门峡水利工程
决策
环境适应
异化
不确定性
sanmenxia reservoir
decision-making
adaptation
alienation
uncertainty
