从第1-30届奥运会审视世界竞技游泳格局形成与态势演变

Formation of Pattern and Evolution of International Competitive Swimming from 1st Olympic Games to 30th Olympic Games

奥运会历来是世界各游泳竞技集团角逐的重要舞台,历届奥运会游泳金牌榜直观地体现了各游泳竞技集团的实力地位和发展趋向。主要运用数理分析法,以动态竞争与博弈论等相关理论为指导,通过对历届奥运会游泳金牌榜纵向时间序列与横向空间排列相结合的交叉分析,揭示在近30届奥运会发展历程中,世界各游泳竞技集团的实力演变和优势转移的变化轨迹和发展趋势,为明晰世界竞技游泳未来发展提供现实参考与理论依据。

The Olympic Games have always been a significant platform for competitive swimming. The gold medal list of every- O- lympic Games reflectts the strength and the development tendency of the competitive swimming groups. Through mathematical statistics, competitive dynamics and game theory, the research made a cross-over analysis of both time series and spatial arrange- ment of every gold medal list to reveal the changes of strength and dominance in the competition, and to predict the future