日本与印度核能合作的动因、影响及前景

The Motive,Influence and Prospect of the Japan-India Nuclear Cooperation

美印核能协议的签署,结束了印度民用核计划30多年的国际孤立。印度迅即与国际上拥有先进核能技术和丰富核燃料储存的国家开展双边合作,其中与日本的核能合作最受瞩目。日印启动核能协议谈判,是双边战略关系内涵不断深化、美日印三边战略互动、地缘政治因素和经济利益考量等多重因素叠加的结果。日印核能合作损害了国际防扩散机制的权威性和有效性,促使美日印三边战略互动更为密切,使日本在全球核能技术中的领先地位更为稳固。日本在巨大经济利益与不向非NPT国家出售核能技术的道义原则之间难以取舍,是导致日印核能合作步履缓慢的主要原因。日本国内也存在反对与印度进行核能合作的民意压力,但民众的包容性在逐渐增强。印度核能市场日趋激烈的竞争,一定程度上强化了日本参与印度核能合作的紧迫性。

The U. S. -India Civilian Nuclear Agreement marks the end of India＇s nuclear isolation for more than 30 years, India developed rapidly bilateral cooperation with the advanced nuclear technology and nu- clear-fuel-rich countries in the world. Its nuclear cooperation with Japan is the most impressive. Japan and India initiated nuclear negotiations, which is the result of multiple-factors coupling, including the enriching of connotation of bilateral strategic relations, the interaction of U. S. -Japan-India trilateral strategic relations, the geopolitical factors and the economic interests. The nuclear cooperation will be harmful to the authority of international non-proliferation regime and its effectiveness, which causes the trilateral strategic in-teractions more closely, and the Japanese leadership in the field of global nuclear energy technology more stable. Japan faces a hard decision to make choice between large economic interests and not selling nuclear technology to non-NPT countries, which is the main reason leading to the slow pace of nuclear cooperation between Japan and India. In Japan there is also public pressure against nuclear cooperation with India, but the public tolerance is gradually improving. The increasingly fierce competition in the India＇s nuclear energy market will strengthen the urgency of Japan＇s participation in India＇s nuclear energy cooperation. The pros- pects of nuclear cooperation between the two sides will depend on obtaining the prudent balance between India＇s limited non-proliferation commitments and Japan＇s fundamental nonproliferation principles.