我国中长期能源碳排放情景展望

Scenario Analysis of China's Long-term Carbon Emissions by Energy Use

本文基于最新修订后的我国能源统计数据，对当前至2050年我国中长期能源消费及其结构、能源二氧化碳排放趋势进行了情景分析。分析结果表明，在碳排放快速达峰、中速达峰、慢速达峰三种情景下，我国2020年的能源消费总量区间在48．43～51．28亿tce，煤炭消费占比区间在58．2％～62．1％；2030年能源消费总量区间在54．25～60．17亿tce，煤炭消费占比区间在43．8％～55．9％。慢速达峰情景下，2045年左右能源碳排放量才能达到峰值水平；中速达峰情景下，2030年左右能源碳排放量达到峰值水平，同时碳排放量将在2025年至2040年之间的较长一段时期内处于峰值平台期；快速达峰情景下能源碳排放将在2020年左右达到峰值，并且达峰后碳排放将开始出现明显的下降趋势。

Based on new revised energy statistics data, China＇s long-term trends of energy consumption, energy structure and carbon emissions by energy use are analyzed. In three scenarios of carbon emissions achieving peak at fast, medium and slowspeed respectively, the total energy consumption is around 4.843-5.128 billion tce and the share of coal in primary energy consumption is around 58.2%-62.1% by 2020, the total energy consumption is around 5.425- 6.017 billion tce and the share of coal is around 43.8%-55.9% by 2030. In slow to peak scenario, carbon emissions peak of energy use is around 2045. In medium speed to peak scenario, carbon emissions peak of energy use is around 2030, and the carbon emissions will in a peak plateau between 2025 and 2040. In fast to peak scenario, carbon emissions peak of energy use is around 2020, and the carbon emissions will appear downward trends after 2020.