跨境贸易人民币计价结算进出口贸易效应分析

Analysis of the Effect of Cross-Border Trade RMB Invoicing and Settlement on Import-Export Trade

自2009年7月跨境贸易人民币结算试点以来,至今已五年有余,到底其实施效果如何?因此,有必要对跨境贸易人民币计价结算进出口贸易效应进行分析。首先,从三个视角进行理论分析,即辩证论视角、博弈论视角和一般均衡论视角,得出跨境贸易人民币计价结算对进出口贸易存在正效应的结论;其次,基于统计数据,采用三个考察期对比方式,对进出口贸易总效应进行分解分析,即,分别分析了进出口规模效应、进出口结构效应、国际贸易条件效应和对外贸易依存度效应,其结论同样验证了实施跨境贸易人民币计价结算对进出口贸易的正效应;最后,对其进行总结并展望。

Since July, 2009, there are more than 5 years for cross-border trade RMB settlement. How much does cross-border trade RMB settlement strategy perform？ It is necessary to study the effect of cross-border trade RMB settlement on import-export trade. At first, the theoretical analysis is made from three perspectives, which are syndrome differentiation, game and general equilibrium. The conclusion is that there is a positive effect of cross-border trade RMB settlement on import-export trade. Secondly, based on statistical data and to apply the comparative method of three periods, the general effect on import-export trade is studied through decomposed effects including import-export size,import-export structure, trade terms and trade dependence, which makes the same conclusion as the above theoretical analysis. At last, there are the general conclusion and trend outlook.