省级森林资源年度出数方法探讨

Discussion on Methods for Output of Annual Provincial Estimates of Forest Resources

如何实现森林资源年度出数,一直都备受关注。参照近年提出的国家层面森林资源年度出数方法,提出了省级森林资源年度出数的基本原则和技术思路,并利用近期贵州、辽宁两省的森林资源连续清查数据,对每年调查1/5样地、采用移动平均数进行年度估计的方法进行了深入分析。通过采用不同权重方案进行对比分析后发现,每年取相等权重的方案尽管在时效性方面会有所损失,但数据的稳定性最高,能客观反映森林资源年度数据的变化趋势,是可选的最佳方案。

How to realize output of annual data of forest resources has been concerned for many years. With reference to the methods for producing annual national estimates of forest resources presented in recent years, this paper puts forward the basic principles and technical ideas on output of annual provincial estimates of forest resources, and makes use of the continuous forest inventory （CFI）data of two provinces of Guizhou and Liaoning to carry out the analysis on the approach that one-fifth of the CFI plots throughout the province are measured every year and annual estimates are obtained through moving average method. By comparing the results from different weighting schemes, it was found that the equal weighting esti- mator with some loss of timeliness had the highest stability and was the best alternative one, which could objectively reflect the changing trend of the annual data of forest resources.