山区中小型水库滑坡堵江预测及负效应分析

Prediction of landslide damming in medium and small-sized reservoir,mountainous area and its negative effects

库区滑坡失稳易引起堵江事件,而堵江堰塞坝的高度则直接影响水库能否正常运营调度,特别是对中小型水库而言。综合前人对滑坡堵江的研究成果,以西南山区某中型水库库区滑坡堆积体为研究对象,假设滑坡失稳堵江为完全堵江,对滑坡堵江可能性进行预测,着重选取三种方法对滑坡堵江的高度进行预测,并讨论了滑坡堵江的负效应,从而完成对库区滑坡堵江的风险性预判。以此初步建立了针对山区中小型水库滑坡堵江预测的研究思路,以期为此类问题的分析提供参考。

The natural landslide damming is much more likely to happen in the reservoir area,and the height of landslide dams directly affects the normal operation of reservoir,especially for medium and small-sized reservoirs.In this paper,the author summarized previous research results on landslide blocking river and studied the landslide accumulation body in the reservoir area of a medium-sized reservoir in Southwest China on the basis of assume that it is blocking the river completely,predicting the possibility of landslide damming of the river.Then the author particularly selected three methods to predict the height of the dam and discussed its negative effects,so as to complete the risk prediction of landslide damming of river in reservoir area.On this account the author has preliminarily built the basic research thinking for the prediction of landslide damming of river in medium and small-sized reservoir of mountainous area,in order to provide a certain reference for solving this kind of problem.