我国经济产出与钢社会蓄积的关联分析

Relationship Analysis between Economic Output and Social Stock

基于动态物质流分析方法及时间序列分析方法,本文以我国1949-2012年年度数据为样本,研究了工业化演进过程中我国经济产出与钢社会蓄积之间的关联。研究结果表明,随着经济的发展和工业化进程的演进,钢以实物产品的形式不断蓄积于我国社会当中,且蓄积的速度不断加快。我国经济产出与钢的社会蓄积之间存在长期协整关系,钢的社会蓄积既能在短期内推动经济的增长,又影响着经济产出的长期整体走势,而经济产出只是钢社会蓄积变化的长期原因。这说明我国的经济建设高度依赖钢的使用,而且经济增长对钢需求的拉动是一个长期的过程,不会在短期内对钢的需求造成显著影响。

The relationship between economic output and social stock of steel is studied using dynamic material flow analysis（MFA） and statistical time series analysis for the period of 1949 to 2012 on Chinese national level during the period of industrialization. The results show that social stock of steel increases in the form of physical products with the development of economy and the evolution of the industrialization, and the speed of growth has accelerated. There is a long-term co-integration relationship between economic output and social stock of steel, economic output is affected by the social stock of steel both in the short term and in the long run, and economic output is only the long-term Granger cause of social stock of steel. The results indicate that economic develop- ment is highly dependent on the use of steel, and the demand of steel is affected by economic output in a long- term process, but not in the short term.