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基于傅抱璞模型的岷江上游流域实际蒸散研究 被引量:6

Simulation and Analysis of Actual Evapotranspiration in the Upper Reaches of Minjiang River Based on Fu Baopu Model
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摘要 基于Budyko假设,利用傅抱璞模型计算了1980-2003年间岷江上游流域的实际蒸散,采用Mann-Kendall检验法分析了实际蒸散的变化趋势,并通过敏感性分析研究了流域实际蒸散的主要影响因子。结果表明:傅抱璞模型能够较好地模拟研究区的实际蒸散。岷江上游流域1980-2003年间平均年实际蒸散为304.6mm,呈显著下降趋势(通过95%信度检验),下降速率为-0.78mm/a。四季都呈现下降趋势,其中春、夏两季在95%信度上呈现显著下降趋势。敏感性分析表明,影响岷江上游流域实际蒸散的主要气候因子是降雨量,其次是相对湿度和日照时数。 On the basis of Budyko hypothesis,Fu Baopu model was used to calculate the actual evapotranspiration in the upper reaches of Minjiang River during the period of 1980-2003.The results showed that Fu Baopu model had an accepted performance in simulating the actual evapotranspiration(ET)in the study area.The annual actual ET had a significant decreasing trend at the 95%confidence level,with an average of 304.6mm/year and a decreasing rate of-0.78mm/a.The decreasing trends were found for all seasons,and were significant at 95% confidence level in spring and summer.The sensitivity analysis revealed that the most important climate factor influencing the actual ETin the upper reaches of the Minjiang River was precipitation,followed by relative humidity and sunshine duration.
出处 《中国农村水利水电》 北大核心 2016年第2期33-36,共4页 China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金 国家自然科学青年基金(41301021)
关键词 傅抱璞模型 岷江上游流域 实际蒸散 趋势 敏感性分析 Fu Baopu model upper reaches of the Minjiang River Actual evapotranspiration trend sensitivity analysis
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