基于拐点理论的引江济太工程规模优选研究

Research on the Optimization Based on Inflection Point Theory for the Project Scale of Water Diversion from Yangtze River to Taihu Lake

越来越多的水利工程要求从改善水环境角度确定其工程规模,然而由于水环境改善效果的复杂性,目前为止还没有形成较成熟、统一的方法,为了更加科学合理地从改善水环境角度确定水利工程的适宜规模,避免由于水利工程规模过大而带来的投资浪费,以及由于工程规模偏小而导致工程效果不佳和不能充分发挥工程应有效益的问题,基于水环境变量间存在的普遍曲线规律,探讨了利用曲线拐点判别水利工程改善水环境适宜规模的方法,结合具体工程案例分析了拐点理论在水环境综合治理工程中应用的有效性。为水利工程在水环境方面的研究论证提供了一种新的思路。

Now more and more water resources projects require a designer to determine their scale from a perspective of water environment improvement.However,due to the complexity of judging the improving effect,no mature and uniform method has been developed up to now.In order to scientifically and appropriately work out the scale for a project,this paper,based on a general curve rule in the variables of water environment,is focused on a method to identify aproper scale of a water resources project partially for water environment improvement.Research is also done to avoid any wasteful investment resulting from unreasonable large scale of the project,or poor effect and efficiency and benefits of the project because of its unsuitable small scale.In the paper,the analysis is conducted about the effectiveness of applying the inflection point theory to a specific case of comprehensive regulation of water environment,and subsequently a new idea is generated for study and verification of a water resources project in consideration of water environment improvement.