房地产价格、信贷可得性与消费者支出之间的关系研究——基于房地产财富效应与信贷渠道效应视角的分析

Study on the Relationship among Real Estate Prices,Credit Availability and Consumer Expenditure——Based on the Perspective of Real Estate Wealth Effect and Effect of Credit Channel

近几年房地产价格高涨对我国的经济造成了一定影响,货币政策与资产价格的关系成为关注的焦点。房地产价格的波动使得消费者的财富、消费支出及信贷可得性等发生变化。在完美金融市场假设下,基于生命周期—持久收入理论分析财富效应与收入效应;在不完美金融市场下,基于流动性约束理论分析抵押效应。研究表明,房价变化影响居民消费的关键决定因素是交易成本、贷款额与抵押物价值比率、业主所有权以及在租赁市场上家庭所占比例、抵押物的可得性、住房价格变化的性质、以及财富的性质。

In recent years,the upright rise of real estate prices has had a certain influence on China＇s economy,and the relationship between monetary policy and asset prices becomes the focus of attention. The fluctuation of the real estate prices has made consumers＇ wealth,consumer expenditure and credit availability change. Under the hypothesis of perfect financial market,based on life cycle—permanent income theory,an analysis is made on the wealth effect and the income effect; under the imperfect financial market,based on the theory of liquidity constraints,an analysis is made on the effect of mortgage. Studies have shown that the key determinant factors for which housing price changes affect the resident consumption are transaction cost,loan-to-collateral-value ratio,the ownership of the owners and the proportion of households in the rental market,the availability of the mortgaged property,the nature of the housing price changes,and the nature of wealth.