基于灰色模糊综合评判的10kV配电网安全风险评估

Security Risk Assessment for 10 kV Distribution Network Based on Gray Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

基于配电网特征,建立配电网评估体系,通过层次分析法幂法分析权重,得到权重模部信息,采用灰点评估模部信息的不可靠度,进行权重灰部确定;利用隶属函数来描述各评估指标与评判等级间的隶属关系,即指标模部,结合信息充裕程度和专家经验,确定各评估指标的灰部,进而对配电网安全风险进行灰色模糊综合评判.实例验证表明,该方法能够有效可靠地评估配电网的安全风险状况.

A distribution network evaluation system is established based on the character of distribution network. AHP method is used to determine the fuzzy part of weight indicator,and gray dots are introduced to describe fuzzy part information unreliability. The membership functions are built up to describe the fuzzy relationship between the assessment indicators and evaluation rank as the fuzzy part of evaluation indicators,and the gray part of each evaluation index is determined by combining information adequacy and expertise experience. On this basis,the gray fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is conducted to assess the distribution network. The result shows the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed method.