2013年北京市传染病自动预警系统运行效果评价

The effectiveness evaluation of China infectious diseases automated-alert and response system in Beijing,2013

目的分析国家传染病自动预警系统(CIDARS)在北京市的运行现状,评价运行效果。方法对北京市2013年CIDARS中3种预警模型的预警信号数及信号响应率、信号响应时间进行描述性分析,并以突发公共卫生事件及聚集性疫情事件进行预警效果评价。结果 2013年CIDARS发出的北京区域内的预警信号共涉及20种传染病4 373条,所有预警信号全部响应,平均响应时间为1.19 h。其中342条信号(7.82%)经初步核实判断为疑似事件,11条经过现场调查确认为暴发,预警阳性率0.25%。结论 CIDARS整体运行情况良好,但预警信号中假阳性信号仍较多,一些功能及参数仍需进一步完善。

Objective To analyze the effectiveness of China infectious diseases automated-alert and response system（ CIDARS） in Beijing. Methods To describe warning signals including amount of signals,the response rate and the time from signals sending to response in CIDARS,which using three alert models. And the effectiveness evaluation was carried out in the warning signals on public health emergencies and aggregation of disease events in the annual report. Results 4373 signals were issued by the CIDARS in Beijing,involving a total of 20 kinds of infectious diseases. All the warning signal were responded,the average response time was 1. 19 h. 342 signal（ 7. 82%） were verified as suspected incident,11 were confirmed as outbreak through field investigation. The positive rate of early warning 0. 25%. Conclusion The overall effectiveness of the CIDARS is good,but the warning signals of false positive signals are still high. Some functions and parameters still need to be further improved.