基于前景理论的铁路应急预案多指标风险评估研究

The Multi-index Risk Evaluation of Railway Emergency Plans Based on Prospect Theory

铁路应急预案评估是铁路应急管理系统中的关键一环。针对现有铁路应急预案评估方法存在的不足,通过分析铁路应急预案的构成要素,提出以时效性、可操作性、完备性、责任明确性和经济性等5方面为基础的铁路应急预案评估指标体系,以及基于前景理论的直觉梯形模糊多指标风险群决策方法以确定最优铁路应急预案。利用前景理论计算指标的综合前景值,基于Choquet积分和扩展Shapley值的集结算子对指标集进行集结,采用投影法获取专家权重并集结各专家的意见,依据相应于各方案的综合前景值获取方案排序,即可确定最优铁路应急预案。算例表明方法的可行性与有效性。

The evaluation of railway emergency plans is a key part of the railway emergency management system.With respect to the inefficiency of the existing methods of the evaluation of railway emergency plans,a novel evaluation index system of the railway emergency plans was proposed by including their time-effectiveness,operability,completeness,responsibility and cost-effectiveness based on subsequent detailed analysis of the component of the railway emergency plans.In order to determine the optimal railway emergency plan from the candidate plans,an approach for multi-index risk group decision making based on trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and prospect theory was put forward.Under the approach,firstly,the prospect theory was used to calculate the comprehensive prospect value of the indexes.Secondly,the index sets were aggregated through the aggregation operator based on Choquet integral and generalized Shapley index.And then the experts′weights are calculated by using the projection method,and they are subsequently employed to aggregate the experts′opinions.Finally,according to the comprehensive prospect value corresponding to each plan,a ranking of alternatives was obtained,whereby the optimal railway emergency plan was determined.The example showed the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.