县域耕地-人口-粮食系统与耕地压力研究

Research on Cropland-Population-Grain System and Pressure on Cropland of County Scale

依据阳新县域2000-2012年来耕地-人口-粮食系统的演变情况,对耕地压力的变化态势进行了解析,并基于GM(1,1)模型预测了2013-2020年相关基础指标和耕地压力指数K。结果显示,阳新县域耕地-人口-粮食系统发展不均衡,最小人均耕地面积总体变化呈现波浪式上升,而耕地压力指数均大于1,呈快速增加趋势,耕地压力较重;2013-2020年间,系统矛盾将继续存在,最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数均逐年升高,耕地压力持续增大。未来阳新县必须采取得力措施,以实现耕地-人口-粮食系统的可持续发展,减轻耕地压力。

Based on the evolution of cropland-population-grain system during 2000-2012 in Yangxin county of Hubei province, the paper analyzed the change of its cropland pressure. And GM（1,1） model was used to forecast the trend of the revelant indicators and cropland pressure index K during 2013-2020. The results showed that： the development of croplandpopulation-grain system was not balanced, the minimum area of cropland per capita was on growth fluctuated and cropland pressure index increased rapidly with values greater than 1, which meant cropland pressure was heavy. During 2013-2020, the contradiction of the system continues to exist, and the minimum area of cropland per capita and K both gradually increase, which means cropland pressure is going to grow. Therefore, Yangxin county must take effective measures to realize the sustainable development of the system and relieve cropland pressure.