基于ELES模型的中国城镇居民居住消费需求动态分析

Dynamic Analysis on Residential Consumption of Urban Residents in China:Based on ELES Model

首先描述了中国城镇居民居住消费现状,然后以2005-2013年中国统计年鉴为基础,利用扩展线性支出系统模型(ELES),并借助于SPSS13.0统计软件对2004-2012年中国城镇居民居住消费需求进行了实证分析。结果表明,中国城镇居民居住消费需求与收入相关性强;自2004年以来城镇居民居住边际消费倾向呈下降趋势,增加的居住消费在增加的可支配收入中所占的比例越来越小;城镇居民居住需求收入弹性大于0小于1,且呈下降趋势,居住消费需求是城镇居民的刚性需求;城镇居民居住基本需求得到了充分满足,不同收入户居住消费差距缩小;中国城镇居民对居住的消费需求已经由生存型转变为发展型和享受型,居住质量得到了提高。最后提出了缩小城镇居民内部收入差距和区域收入差距、确立科学合理的居住消费理念、加大调控力度,抑制住房投机行为、完善城镇住房保障制度等建议。

At first, this paper describes the residential consumption status quo of urban residents in China. According to the statistical date from 2005-2013 in China, using the ELES, the residential consumption of urban residents in China from 2004 to 2012 was empirically studied with SPSS13.0. The results show： residential consumption of urban residents in China has strong correlation with income; marginal propensity of residential consumption of urban residents has been on the decline since 2004; the proportion of increasing residential consumption in increasing disposable income is more and more small; income elasticity of residence demand of urban residents is greater than 0, less than 1 and appears downward trend, which shows that the residential consumption demand of urban residents is rigid demand. The urban residents has fully met basic residential demand, the gap of different income households residential consumption is reducing. The residential consumption demand of urban residents in China now pay greater attention to building cozy homes. The living quality has improved. Finally, some suggestions are put forward such as reducing the internal income gap of urban residents and regional income disparities, establishing scientific and rational residence consumption attitude, strengthening regulation and controlling housing speculation, perfecting the urban housing security system etc.