甘肃省能源利用碳足迹估算与分析

Estimate and Analysis of Carbon Footprint of Energy Utilization in Gansu Province

运用碳足迹的相关含义以及研究方法估算了2001—2011年甘肃省能源利用的碳足迹、碳足迹产值、碳足迹强度与碳足迹生态压力,并利用回归分析法,探讨经济增长与碳足迹之间的定量关系。结果表明,甘肃省碳足迹逐年上升,从2001年的0.565 hm^2/人上升到2011年的1.238 hm2/人;煤炭类利用的碳足迹所占比例最大,石油次之,天然气最小;碳足迹产值从2001年的0.776万元/hm^2增加到2011年的1.582万元/hm^2,呈上升趋势,碳足迹强度从2001年的1.288 hm^2/万元下降到2011年的0.632 hm^2/万元,呈下降趋势,碳足迹生态压力从2001年的0.75上升到2011年的1.65。碳足迹与经济发展不表现为环境库兹涅曲线的倒U形关系,而是S形曲线关系。

In order to discuss the quantitative relationship between economic growth and carbon footprint, the related meaning and the research method of carbon footprint were used to estimate the carbon footprint, value of carbon footprint, carbon footprint intensity and ecological pressure intensity of carbon footprint of energy utilization in Gansu province from 2001 to 2011,and the quantitative relationship between economic growth and carbon footprint was discussed by using regression analysis method. The results showed that the total carbon footprint was increased from 0.565 hm^2 per person up to 1.238 hm^2 per person, the maximum proportion of carbon footprint was carbon, the second was oil and the last was gas, the value of carbon footprint presented rising trend from 7 760 yuan / hm^2 up to 15 820 yuan / hm^2, however, carbon footprint intensity shows downtrend from 1.288×10-4hm^2/ yuan to 6.318×10^-5hm^2/ yuan in this period, as well as ecological pressure intensity of carbon footprint from 0.75 to 1.65. The analysis indicated that the relationship between economic growth and carbon footprint was not Environmental Kuzne curve but S type curve.