我国省域金融生态与经济增长关系的实证研究

Empirical Study of the Relationship Between the Provincial Financial Ecology and Economic Growth in China

通过对2001~2012年我国30个省区的金融生态和经济增长综合指数的核算,及运用VAR模型对二者的相互作用机制的解析,可以发现：短期内各省区金融生态和经济增长呈非平稳态势,但长期来看,二者是均衡稳定的,且至少存在一个方向的格兰杰因果关系。由进一步的脉冲响应和方差分解可知,省域层面金融生态受经济增长的影响较大,但东、中、西、东北四大区域层面经济增长受金融生态的影响较大。

The paper calculates 30 provinces of the financial ecology and economic growth index in China from 2001 to 2012, and analyzes the interaction mechanism of the two by using the VAR model. The results show that there was a nonstationary trend between provincial financial ecology and economic growth in the short term, but in the long run, the two were balanced and stable, and there was at least one direction of Granger causality. Furthermore, financial ecology was strongly influenced by economic growth in each province and the economic growth in four regions was greatly influenced by the financial ecology in the east, center, west and northeast through the impulse response and variance decomposition.