基于未确知测度理论的岩溶路基稳定性分析

Analysis on the Stability of Subgrade in Karst Area Based on Uncertainty Measurement Theory

随着岩溶区干线公路建设的发展,针对岩溶区路基稳定性的研究成为亟待解决的问题。本文采用未确知测度理论对岩溶路基稳定性进行评价,选取16个对其影响较大的因子作为评价指标,建立各评价指标的未确知测度函数,利用熵权法求得各评价指标权重值,最后参考置信度准则判断岩溶路基风险性等级。将该方法应用到湖南省石门县干线公路改造当中,得出1#段路基和2#段路基的风险性等级分别为Ⅳ级、Ⅲ级,这与采用专家经验法及模糊评判分析法得到的结果相符。该方法可作为岩溶路基稳定性分析的一种新手段,其分析结果可作为设计和施工的依据。

As the development of highway construction in Karst Area, the researches based on subgrade stability in Karst region have become the problems being urgent to solve. This paper analyzed the model of uncertainty measurement based on sixteen indexes having the greatest impact on the subgrade stability in Karst Area. Also, the uncertain measurement functions of all indicators were built, after each index weight was calculated by using information entropy theory, and then the risk grade prediction of subgrade stability was made according to grade determination based on confidence identification criteria.When this model was applied to the highway rebuilding project in Shimen County Hunan Province, the results showed that the risk grade of 1# subgrade and 2# subgrade were Ⅳ and Ⅲ respectively, which were highly consistent with the forecast results based on the expert experience method or the fuzzy evaluation method. The methods in the present paper are capable of providing a new way for subgrade stability analysis and a reference for design and construction.