高寒生态脆弱区气候变化对农户生计的脆弱性影响评价——以甘南高原为例

Assessment of the impact of climate change on vulnerability of farmer households' livelihood in an ecologically vulnerable alpine region: Taking Gannan Plateau for example

气候变化是21世纪人类面临的最严峻挑战之一,加剧了许多国家和地区的脆弱性,对以自然资源为生计基础的农业人口的影响尤为显著。明确气候变化对农户生计脆弱性的影响,对于制定有效的气候变化适应政策,增强农户的气候变化适应能力,减轻农村贫困人口的生计脆弱性具有重要意义。本文以甘南高原为例,建立了气候变化对农户生计脆弱性影响评价指标体系,基于539份农户调查问卷,分析了气候变化对农户生计的影响,并利用多元线性回归模型分析了影响农户生计脆弱性的关键因素。结果表明:(1)气候变化对甘南高原不同类型农户生计的影响不同,其中,青年户主型农户生计的脆弱性最强,中年户主型农户生计的脆弱性最小;从低收入农户到高收入农户、从低教育水平农户到高教育水平农户、从纯农户到二兼户,其生计脆弱性趋于降低,但从低抚养比农户到高抚养比农户,其生计脆弱性趋于增大;(2)气候变化对甘南高原不同区域农户生计的影响存在差异,其中,纯牧区农户生计的脆弱性最强,农区农户生计脆弱性最小;(3)农户生计的脆弱性与农户的年龄和受教育水平、家庭人均收入水平、非农化水平及生计多样化水平呈负相关,与家庭抚养比呈正相关。最后,提出了减轻农户生计脆弱性的建议。

Climate change is one of the most serious challenges to human in the 21 st century,which exacerbates the vulnerability of many countries and regions,especially for the agricultural population who relies on natural resources for their livelihoods. Clarifying the impacts of climate change on farmers＇ livelihood vulnerability is of great significance for making effective adaptive strategy and strengthening the farmers＇ adaptability and mitigating livelihood vulnerability to climate change. This paper takes Gannan Plateau,a representative ecologically vulnerable alpine region,as the study area,and establishes an index system for evaluating farmer households＇ livelihood vulnerability to climate change. Based on 539 questionnaires of farmer households,we analyzed the impacts of climate change on farmers＇ livelihood vulnerability in Gannan Plateau and the key factors affecting farmers＇ livelihood vulnerability by using the multivariable linear regression model. The results show that：（ 1） The impacts of climate change differ with different types of households in Gannan Plateau,of which,the vulnerability of households with young householders is the strongest,and the vulnerability of households with middle-aged householders is the least. The vulnerability of farmers＇ livelihood to climate change tends to decrease from the low income households to the high income households,from the households with low education level to the households with high education level,from the households with less than 10% of their income from non-farming to the households with more than 90% of their income from non-farming,but to increase from the households with low dependency ratio to the households with high dependency ratio;（ 2） The impacts of climate change on the livelihood of farmers differ in different regions,of which,the vulnerability of households living in pure pastoral area is the strongest,and the vulnerability of households living in the farming areas is the least.（ 3） The vulnerability of farmers＇ livelihood to climate change is negatively correlated with the age and the education level of householders,the income per capita of households and the level of non-farming and livelihood diversification,while positively correlated with the dependency ratio. Finally,suggestions are proposed to reduce the vulnerability of the farmers＇ livelihood to the climate change.