金融稳定国际指标及其对中国的适用性

International Financial Stability Indicators and Their Applicability in China

金融稳定问题一直受到世界各国的关注,随着金融体系越来越趋向开放性、动态性和复杂性,其潜在风险不断暴露,金融不稳定的可能性长期存在。因此,选择适合中国国情的金融稳定评价体系,正确评估金融风险、有效维护金融稳定、预防危机的发生十分必要。本文首先基于IMF提出的金融稳定国际指标,对中国和其他国家及地区进行国别比较,并通过实证检验得出该指标体系并不适用于中国的结论。然后分别选取六个宏观经济指标、六个机构层次指标和七个市场层次指标,建立符合我国发展水平和所处阶段的金融稳定指标体系。经过实证检验,该指标体系对金融不稳定有一定的解释能力:相较于金融机构内部风险,宏观环境和市场波动对金融稳定性的影响更为显著。研究结论为金融管理当局重点监控和考核的对象提供了参考,也为完善我国金融稳定指标体系提供了新的可能。

The problem of financial stability has always been concerned by countries around the world. Following the increasingly open, dynamic and complex financial system, the potential risks have exposed continually and the possibility of financial instability may exist in long term. Especially after the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2007, the turmoil in international financial market was drastic and has not been fully re- stored until now. Therefore it is necessary to choose a proper evaluation system of financial stability to assess finan- cial risks, effectively maintain the stability of financial markets and prevent crises. The concept of financial stability in the modern sense was produced in the early 1990s, but it was not until af- ter the Asian financial crisis in 1997 that the international community has paid great attention to it. However, there is no consensus on the definition of financial stability. The instability of finance is generally divided into two catego- ries： the financial crisis and financial deterioration. The former triggers a run on financial institutions and causes lack of liquidity, with currency devaluation by the market selling a large number of local currency ; the latter is due to the large amount of non-performing loans and low capital adequacy ratio in the financial system, First of all based on international financial stability indicators created by IMF, this paper compares China with other nations and are- as, and obtains the result that this indicator system is not suitable for China. Second, this paper proposes the index system of financial stability in China after modification of FSIs core index. The system includes 6 macroeconomic in- dicators and 13 micro-prudential indicators, providing more comprehensive evaluation of China＇s economic stability in deposit absorption institutions, money market, stock market, insurance market, foreign exchange market and the real estate market as well as overall macro-economy, and trying to find crisis warning system that accord with China＇s developmental level. Empirical tests indicate that this new system has some explanatory power of financial instability. Comparing with internal risks in financial institutions, macro-environment and market fluctuation have more significant influences on financial stability. Among macro-environment index, the growth rate of GDP and the rate of money have the greatest impact on fi- nancial stability ： the increase of GDP growth rate or the decrease of the rate of monetization will lead to the instabil- ity of the financial system. The decline in inflation rate and the booming index of macro-economy will lead to rising unemployment, thus causing financial instability. There is a negative correlation between the M2/ international re- serve and financial stability, as well as the real effective exchange rate and financial stability. For the market level indicators, the volume of inter-bank offer, the change rate of stock price index, assets income ratio in the insurance industry and total real estate loans have negative correlations with financial stability. According to this financial stability index system, China＇s regulatory authorities should not focus completely on the banking sector when monitor and examine macro-economy. More attention should be paid to the stability of each market and their interaction, as well as the health of macroeconomic environment. Our country has basically estab- lished the macro prudential regulatory framework of financial institutions that centers on central banks as the highest decision-making body and act from top to bottom. In the industry of securities, insurance, foreign exchange, real estate and so on, although there are macro prudential regulation entities, their main effect were not significant and the power of supervision were less than that in banking industry. The establishment of a sound financial stability in- dex system is a wide-range, demanding task, which requires long-term researches and practice of China＇s financial regulatory authorities. In order to maintain the financial stability of our country, the establishment of a scientific and effective evaluation system is an essential foundation. It has a very important practical significance, but China is still in the exploratory stage in this regard.