京津冀协同发展背景下金融聚集的溢出效应——基于长三角、珠三角空间面板的对比分析

A Study on the Spillover Effect of Financial Conglomeration under the Collaborative Development in Jing-Jin-Ji Area——Comparison Based on Spatial Panel Data of Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta

本文通过对京津冀、长三角和珠三角47个城市2000—2013年的空间面板数据进行对比分析,旨在从金融聚集的"吸附效应"和"溢出效应"视角探讨三大都市圈,特别是京津冀经济发展失衡的深层次历史原因及未来发展方向。实证结果表明,三大城市群的金融聚集对经济增长呈现出不同的空间辐射模式:京津冀的银行和保险业均对邻近区域产生"吸附效应",而证券业则呈现出显著的"溢出效应",这与珠三角城市群如出一辙;与此相反,长三角的银行业和保险业则分别呈现出"溢出效应"和"吸附效应",但证券业对经济增长的影响却并不显著。进一步的分析发现,在本文的样本期内,京津冀银行业对经济增长的影响已由"吸附效应"跃迁为"溢出效应",但证券市场和保险市场的资源配置和市场结构反而更不合理。这些结论将为探索适合京津冀一体化金融发展的路径提供政策支持。

In April 2015, the announcement of ＂the coordinated development of Jing-Jin-Ji area＂, otherwise known as a major national development strategy, provides a golden opportunity for the development of Hebei province. However, the economic and finance development of Jing-Jin-Ji area is not unlike between heaven and earth by the guidance of ＂growth pole theory＂ and ＂unbalanced development pattern＂ since the Chinese economic re- form. The collapse distribution of financial resources and economic development in Jing-Jin-Ji area, which has be- come the main obstacle of the cooperated development of Jing-Jin-Ji, is not only the hot spots of the media, but also the focus for both the practitioners and scholars. In order to conducted a systematically discussion of spillover effects of finance conglomeration in Jing-Jin-Ji ar- ea, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, this paper takes the spatial geographical autocorrelation feature into account. On this basis, it selects the panel data of 13 cities of Jing-Jin-Ji area from 2000 to 2013 as the object of this research, and establishes spatial SAR, SEM and SDM models to explore how the development of Beijing and Tianjin affect surrounding areas from the aspects of adsorption effects and spillover effects of financial conglomera- tion. Secondly, this paper intends to explore the internal mechanism and the distribution characteristics of the un- balance development of Jing-Jin-Ji area by comparing the panel data of 25 cities in Yangtze River Delta and 9 cities in Pearl River Delta. Finally, it decomposes the gross effect into direct effect and indirect effect to confirm the spa- tial effect in three areas, especially the spatial transition of Jing-Jin-Ji area, is real and solid. The empirical results indicate that the deposit in Jing-Jin-Ji area produces negative influence to local economy, but has incentive effect on surrounding economic growth, which implies that the capital flight of deposit resources is quite severe. While the loan shows the opposite phenomenon. At the same time, the security market stimulates the adjacent economy, while the insurance confines the adjacent economy. On the contrary, deposit in Yangtze River Delta promotes the local economic, but not significant. While the loan has a positive influence to the surrounding ar- ea. In additional, the insurance is not only confines the local economy, but also confines the surrounding area. As for the Pearl River Delta, the performance is quite similar to Jing-Jin-Ji area except that the insurance of Pearl Riv- er Delta promote the local economic development. Moreover, the decomposition of the spatial effects confirm the ro- bustness of our results. To be specific, only the banking indus a whole. But the spatial radiation is mainly driven by banking try in Yangtze River Delta presents radiation effect as industry, while the security and insurance do not in- dicate any spillover effects. Although the spatial effect in Jing-Jin-Ji area has transferred from absorption effect to spillover effect as a whole, the banking and insurance industry still show an absorption effect and security industry show a spillover effect on the contrary, which is quite similar to the Pearl River Delta. These findings illustrate a fact that the different radiation pattern of Jing-Jin-Ji area, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta lead to a different economic performance in those three metropolitan areas. The results suggest that the administrator should promote the financial resources multidirectional flows in Jing-Jin-Ji area, establish a sound financial ecological environment and cooperation supervision mechanism, optimize the structure of credit capital allocation in Jing-Jin-Ji area, foster listed enterprises, and develop multistage insurance market. Only then can solve Hebei＇s own problem and achieve the coordinate development of Jing-Jin-Ji area.