人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调性测度及优化——以南昌市为例

The Coordination and Its Optimization About Population and Land of Urbanization:A Case Study of Nanchang City

人口与土地是城镇化的重要组成部分,分析二者之间状态演化对促进城市健康发展具有重要意义。在界定人口城镇化与土地城镇化二者概念基础上,基于人口构成、人口素质、人口生活、城镇规模、城镇投入、城镇产出等构建评价指标体系,并通过耦合协调模型对省会型城市南昌市2002-2011年两者之间的协调关系进行测度和分析,结果表明：①人口城镇化指数与土地城镇化指数呈波动变化并持续上涨,城镇发展由土地滞后型向人口滞后型转变;②人口城镇化与土地城镇化的协调状态由失调衰退区向过渡协调区演进,发展类型则由高度不协调状态向勉强协调状态过渡。在此基础上分析了南昌市人口城镇化速度滞后于土地城镇化速度的原因,指出两者关系主要受到城市发展外在制度与内在基础的共同作用,并认为构建人口与土地城镇化双重优化路径是协调人口城镇化与土地城镇化同步发展的有效途径。

Land and population are two key and interactive factors in urbanization, and it＇s extremely important to coordinate them for healthy urbanization. To measure and analyze their coupling relationship, this study established an index system including population structure, life quality, urban size, input and output on the basis of defining population urbanization and land urbanization. Then this system was applied empirically in Nanchang, the capital city of Jiangxi province located in the middle of China. The results showed that： 1） Both the index of population urbanization and that of land urbanization were rising continuously with fluctuations, and there was a shift from land lagging urbanization to population lagging urbanization in Nanchang between 2002 and 2011. 2） The coordination relationship between population urbanization and land urbanization changed from deterioration to optimization, resulting in the transfer of urban development status from high inconsistence to week coordination. The study also discussed the reasons behind the results, indicating the discordance of urban development was induced by both external institutional systems and internal basic conditions. It suggested that it＇s necessary to take measures to coordinate the relationship between land and population to promote healthy urbanization.