制造业与物流业联动机理系统动力学分析

Research on Interaction Mechanism of Manufacturing Industry and Logistic Industry Based on System Dynamics

本文根据相关理论及中国现实情况构建制造业与物流业联动机理系统动力学模型,其中包括制造业及物流业增加值、制造业物流外包率和我国物流费用占GDP比重等变量,在完成模型的强壮性和一致性检验后应用Vensim PLE软件进行系统仿真政策模拟,结果发现我国物流业信息化对物流费用占GDP比重及制造业增加值有显著影响,而物流业增加值对制造业物流外包率的增加较为敏感。同时,国家对物流业信息化资金扶持可使制造业外包和物流业信息化的效果更加突出,使系统各参与方都得到更良好的发展。

This paper constructs the interactive mechanism system dynamics model of manufacturing industry and logistic industry ac-cording to the relevant theories and actual situation of China, including the variables such as value-added, outsourcing rate of the man-ufacturing industry and logistic industry as well as the proportion of China＇ s logistic industry to GDP. This relationship is simulated byVensim PLE software after robustness and consistency checking. Results show that logistics informatization has significant influence onthe efficiency of logistics and manufacturing output value-added, but logistics output value-added is more sensitive to the logistics out-sourcing rate of the manufacturing industry. Meanwhile, the governmental financial support to logistic industry informatization can makethe effect of both the outsource of the manufacturing industry and the informatization of the logistic industry more effective and make allparties of the system obtain a better development.