基于指数平滑法的煤矿事故死亡预测研究

Research on Coal Mine Accident Death Prediction Based on Exponential Smoothing Method

为了发现煤矿事故发生规律,减少煤矿事故,降低死亡率,研究基于3次指数平滑分析法,选取2000～2014年我国煤矿事故死亡人数进行分析,应用3次指数平滑法进行建模,预测出2015、2016年我国煤矿事故死亡人数,研究基于3类危险源提出了对应的解决措施,为决策者做好预防与应急工作奠定基础。

In order to find out the occurrence of coal mine accidents, reduce coal mine accidents and the mortality rate. This research is based on three exponential smoothing method, and analyze the death of coal mine accidents from 2000 to 2014 in China. Using this method is to model, prediction, China＇s accident in 2015,2016 death. The study based on the corresponding measures are proposed, and lay the foundation for the decision makers to make prevention and emergency work.