人民币是否已经成为东亚地区的锚货币?

Has Renminbi Played the Role of Anchor Currency in East Asian Countries and Economies?

对日度和月度数据的实证分析都表明,2005年7月至2008年8月,人民币已经成为林吉特和新加坡元的锚货币。对日度数据的实证分析发现,2010年6月至2014年9月,人民币的锚货币地位有所提升,印尼盾、林吉特、新加坡元和泰铢的货币篮子中都检测到人民币的存在;而对月度数据的实证分析表明,人民币没有充当东亚地区的锚货币,东亚经济体汇率制度弹性在增大。除此之外,研究还发现,美元在东亚地区的锚货币地位有所下降。中国应充分考虑东亚汇率制度的变化,积极采取措施降低美元对人民币的影响,提高人民币汇率制度弹性。

The empirical study of both daily data and monthly data from July 2005 to August 2008 indicates that the renminbi has become anchor currency for ringgit and Singapore dollar. An empirical study based on daily data from June 2010 to September 2014 shows that the renminbi was playing an increasing role as an anchor currency; the renminbi was found in currency basket of the Indonesian rupiah, ringgit, Singapore dollar and Thai baht. In contrast, from an empirical study based on monthly data, the renminbi has not played role of anchor currency in East Asian economies, and the flexibility of the currencies in this region increased. In addition, it can be found that the anchor currency role of U. S dollar began to fall. China should consider these changes in East Asian countries, and take measures to decrease the imfluence of U. S dollar on the renminbi and increase the flexibility of renminbi exchange rate regime.