外汇储备减少是否具有通货紧缩效应

Does Foreign Exchange Reserve Reduction have Deflation Effects

本文基于卢卡斯总供给模型推导出外汇储备增长率与通货膨胀率之间的计量方程,着重研究了我国通货膨胀与外汇储备之间的非线性关联机制。研究结果表明,当经济处于繁荣期时,我国的外汇储备增长对通货膨胀具有显著的拉动效应,此时通货膨胀在很大程度上取决于外汇储备变动;而当经济处于紧缩期时,外汇储备变动将不会对通货膨胀产生显著影响。此外,本文还发现,通货膨胀与外汇储备增长之间同样存在显著的通货膨胀门限效应,具体表现为外汇储备增长对通货膨胀的影响将会随着通货膨胀水平的下降而不断降低。因此,我们应当理性看待央行的结构性减储行为,它仅是现阶段央行进行资本结构平衡的阶段性措施,不会对当前的通货膨胀水平产生显著的通货紧缩效应。

Based on the Lucas aggregate supply model,this paper deduces the equation between the growth rate of foreign exchange reserves and the inflation rate,and takes a further study on the non- linear nexus between inflation and foreign exchange reserves in China. The findings show that the growth of foreign exchange reserves in China has a significant effect on inflation when the economy is in a boom period,and the level of inflation is largely determined by the changes in foreign exchange reserves. When the economy is in a period of austerity,the growth in foreign exchange reserves will not have a significant impact on the level of inflation. In addition,this paper also finds inflation and the growth of foreign exchange reserve also exist significant inflation threshold effect; the impact which comes from the growth of the performance of the foreign exchange reserve growth on inflation would be decreased with the level of inflation declining. Therefore,we should review the structural behavior of the central bank reserve rationally,it is only a periodical behavior to balance the central bank＇s capital at this stage and it will not have a significant deflation effect on the current level of inflation.