汇改、资本流动及我国金融改革的时间窗口选择

The Reform of RMB Exchange Rate,Capital Flow and Time Window Selection of China's Financial Reform

短期资本大规模流出,"811"汇改股灾后强势推出,人民币成功加入SDR却突破近年来最大贬值幅度,证券市场一蹶不振,国内金融市场一片惨淡;在此背景下,分析资本流动对我国宏观经济造成的直接影响和潜在影响,以两次汇改为时间节点研究资本流动影响因素的差异,并结合"股灾、资本流动、‘811’汇改"的现实案例分析我国金融改革时间窗口选择的重要性,进而提出将金融改革与汇率超调理论、利率平价理论、宏观经济形势相结合,以稳步的资本账户开放进程和完善的风险预警机制来应对金融开放后更大的资本流动冲击等政策建议,以维护我国金融秩序和经济安全。

Large- scale short- term capital has been out,＂811 ＂ exchange rate reform launched strongly after the stock market disaster,the biggest depreciation of RMB has broken after RMB successfully joining the SDR domestic stock market remains depressed,domestic financial market is very bleak. In this contexts,analyzing the direct and potential impact of capital flowing on China＇ s macroeconomic,studying the impact factors＇ differences on capital flowing before and after the exchange rate reform,analyzing the importance of the time window selection of related financial reform policies with the case of ＂the stock market disaster,the flowing of capital,811 exchange rate reform＂. And then putting forward the corresponding policy recommendations such as combining the financial reform and overshooting theory、interest rate parity theory、macroeconomic situation,using the steady capital account liberalization process and perfect risk warning mecha·nism to deal with the impact of greater capital flowing after financial liberalization,to maintain China＇s financial order and economic security.