经济新常态下宏观调控应有新思路

New Thinking Should be Adopted for the Macro-management under the New Economic Normal

全球经济仍未完全走出国际金融危机的阴影,可能呈现低增长、低贸易、低通胀、低投资、高债务的"四低一高"态势,经济复苏势头仍然偏弱。未来五年,中国面临的内外部环境比"十二五"更为复杂,任务更为艰巨、挑战更为严峻。在经济从旧常态向新常态转换过程中,必须探索宏观调控的新路径,特别是树立"问题导向"的思维方式,针对"去产能、去库存、去杠杆、降成本、补短板"的问题,衔接好供给侧和需求侧,守住"底线思维",准确识别、预判、化解风险,创新完善政策工具箱,使经济发展趋稳和蓄势。

As the global economy has not completely stepped out of the shadow of the international financial crisis,it may present a trend of'four lows and one high',namely,low growth,low trade,low inflation,low investment and high debts,and thus the momentum for economic recovery is still too weak.In the next five years,the internal and external environment of China is going to face is even more complex than that during the 12 th Five-Year period,with tougher tasks and greater challenges.In the economic transition process from the old normal to the new normal,we must explore a new way for macro-management,especially a'problem-oriented'way of thinking.To solve the problems of overcapacity,over inventory,deleveraging,lowering cost,and shoring up weak growth areas,we should connect well the supply side and the demand side,stick to the 'bottom line thinking',preeisely identify,predict and mitigate risks and improve and innovate policy toolbox,so as to stabilize and boost the economic growth.There are five questions deserved further discussion in the future macro-management.