生育政策调整对城市基础教育资源配置的影响研究

Effect of Birth Policy Adjustment on Urban Basic Education Resources Allocation

生育政策的调整短期内在城市中会导致新出生人口的增加,因而对于基础教育资源配置需要有重新的规划。文章以生师比的区域差异和新出生人口的空间分布为主线,结合新型城镇化建设过程中人口迁移带来新增入学需求的增加,分析我国城市基础教育资源配置受生育政策调整的影响,并以北京市为例,细致分析了特大城市内部不同市区基础教育资源配置的政策影响。经过分析和测算,短期内需要适当地增加城市市区基础教育资源的配置以满足未来几年入学需求的增长;就全国而言,急需增加资源的区域主要集中于中部、西南和华南地区,在特大型城市,应在新增出生人口多且生师比较高的市区增加资源投入;长期来看,政策带来的生育影响会趋于稳定,因而基础教育资源配置仍需考虑人口数量和结构的长期变化。

As the selective two children policy takes into effect, there would be an increase of new-born population in some cities in short term. Accordingly, there would be an increase of education ＇resources allocation. With pupil-teacher ratio and spatial allocation of new born population as the main analysis thread, combing the migration due to new urbanization, the author analyzed the effect of policy change on elementary education resources allocation on national wide. Moreover, taking Beijing as a case, the author analyzed the policy effect of metropolitan for different districts in terms of education resources allocation. In conclusion, urban education resources should increase accordingly in short term. From national wide, more attention should be paid on the central, southwest and south part of China. For metropolitan, priority should be paid on districts with large increase of new borns and high pupil-teacher ratio. But in the long run, as the policy effect comes to a steady point, the demand for education resources will decrease gradually as new born population decreases. Thus, the balanced education resources allocation should be considered.