公共政策过程中的风险管理——以“危机叠加:透视天津限行乌龙夜”为例

Crises Management in Public Policy Process——Take "Crisis Overlay:Snafu Traffic Control Event of Tianjin " as an Example

进入风险社会后,各种各样的突发性事件频现,并呈现出影响范围大、涉及面广、参与部门多的新特点。由于公共风险的可控性差、社会决策的理性有限、决策体制的不科学与不完善、决策工具的落后性、决策绩效的管理偏颇等因素,政府部门在应对社会风险,制定与落实社会政策的过程中不免会创造、激化、叠加甚至进一步复杂化、扩大化社会风险,加剧整体社会的紧张情绪的乘数效应。风险与公共政策相随,将风险管理观念与理论注入到公共政策过程中,明确时间区间、场景、风险指标和基准点四个风险管理要素,增加完全确定型情境的政策规划"白系统",对于规避公共政策风险、减少政策的社会风险震荡颇具意义。

Entering the risk society,various emergencies occurred frequently,with new features such as wide-range influence,multiple verticals,and more participating departments.Due to poor control of public rational risk,limited social decision-making,unscientific and imperfect decision-making system,out-dated decisionmaking tools,improper decision-making performance management and other factors,government departments will inevitably create,intensify,superimpose even further complicate or escalate social risks in social policies making and implementation,and multiplier the social tension as a whole.Risk and public policy go hand in hand.Injecting the risk management concepts and theories into the public policy process,clearing the four elements of risk management including time interval,scenes,risk indicators and reference points,and increasing completely deterministic policy planning scenarios,namely ＂white system＂,will contribute to the avoidance of public policy risk and reduce social risk policy shocks.