孤山川流域次洪水量和沙量影响因素分析

Analysis of Impacting Factors on Runoff and Sediment Transport of Flood Event in Gushanchuan Basin

运用有序聚类法、MWP检定法和Mann-Kendall方法分析了孤山川流域场次洪水的水量、沙量和降雨量,认为天然时期和人类活动影响时期的分界点为1979年。利用天然时期的水文资料建立了次洪降雨—水量—沙量模型,并利用该模型分析了降雨变化和人类活动对1979年之后次洪水量和沙量的影响。结果表明:人类活动影响时期的1980—2010年,降雨变化和人类活动对次洪水量减少的影响分别占65.7%、34.3%,对次洪沙量减少的影响分别占72.9%、27.1%。

The turning point of water and sand of natural period and human activity impacting period in Gushanchuan basin is the year 1979, which was analyzed by method of orderly clustering, MWP test and Mann?Kendall method. The model was established by using the data before 1979, and the impacting factors on runoff and sediment transport of flood event after 1979 were analyzed. The results show that during the period of 1980 to 2010, rainfall change and human activity occupies 65.7% and 34.3% respectively on runoff reduction of flood event, and occupies 72.9% and 27.1% respectively on sediment transport reduction.